Prepared by Glen Milner, Ground Zero Center for Nonviolent Action, June 10, 2024; based upon Federation of American Scientists United States Nuclear Weapons, 2024. See https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-05/united-states-nuclear-weapons-2024.
“…that pool of eight ballistic missile submarines that operates out of Bangor, that is the most powerful military force on the planet.” – Hans Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists1
Each Trident submarine (SSBN) carries 20 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM, also specifically known as the D5LE).2 Each D5LE (Trident II D5 “life extended”) missile has a range of 12,000 km—equal to 7,460 miles or 6,482 nautical miles.3
Estimated number of warheads per submarine: 90 warheads on 20 SLBMs4 Each submarine is estimated to deploy with the following nuclear warheads:
TRIDENT WARHEAD TOTAL KILOTONS
2 W76-2 (8 kiloton)5 16 kt
20 W88 (455 kiloton)6 9,100 kt
68 W76-1 (90 kiloton)7 6,120 kt
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1 The Nuns, The Priests, and The Bombs, documentary by Helen Young, 2017. Segment from the film at 16:40, at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZyXCYSbYj0 and https://nunspriestsbombsthefilm.com.
2 U.S. nuclear weapons, 2024 pg. 192. See https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-05/united-states-nuclear- weapons-2024. This number is reduced from 24 missiles originally deployed on SSBNs to meet limits of New START. No more than 240 missiles (on 12 SSBNs) will deploy at one time.
3 Ibid. According to Google Earth, it is approximately 4,700 nautical miles from Naval Base Kitsap-Bangor to Beijing. The minimum range for the D-5 missile is 2,000 km or about 1,250 miles. See https:// missilethreat.csis.org/missile/trident.
4 Ibid, pg. 193.
5 Ibid, pg. 183 and 193. “We estimate that no more than 25 [W76-2] were ultimately produced, and that one or two of the 20 missiles on each SSBN is armed with one or two W76–2 warheads each, while the remainder of the SLBMs will be filled with either the 90-kiloton W76–1 or the 455-kiloton W88.” (Arkin and Kristensen 2020)
6 Ibid, pg. 183. The W88 is a more modern and more powerful substitution for the W76 Trident warheads. Approximately 400 of an expected 4,000 W88 warheads were made. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W88 The W88 is currently undergoing a modernization program in which half have been delivered (W88 Alt 370) in 2023 and the remainder by 2026. 384 W88 warheads distributed on 14 SSBNs would be approximately 27 W88 warheads per SSSBN. Because of the ongoing modernization—the writer’s estimate (not FAS) is that the Navy deploys approximately 20 W88 warheads per submarine. Regarding the end of production of the W88, see https:// www.npr.org/2012/06/12/154839592/under-the-nuclear-shadow-of-colorados-rocky-flats and https://outrider.org/ nuclear-weapons/articles/rocky-flats-raid.
7 Ibid, pg. 183
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15,236 kilotons total and equal to the explosive force of about 1,000 Hiroshima-sized bombs.8
The tactical W76-2 (8-kiloton) warhead gives each submarine the capability to “deter limited nuclear use” while other warheads on the submarine provide the capability of striking as many as 88 different targets with warheads equal to approximately 6 times and 30 times the explosive force as the Hiroshima bomb.9
Of the 14 Trident ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) in the entire fleet—eight are deployed at Naval Base Kitsap-Bangor (Washington) and six are deployed at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay (Georgia)10 From the deployment of the first Polaris SSBN in 1960 to the end of the Cold War in 1991—nearly all deterrent SSBN patrols were in the Atlantic.11 In contrast, over 60 percent of SSBN patrols are now in the Pacific.12
An estimated 4-5 Bangor-based SSBNs are at sea at any given time.13 Of this number, approximately 2-3 Bangor-based SSBNs are thought to be on “hard alert” in their designated patrol areas.14 Another 2-3 Bangor-based SSBNs could be brought to full alert status within hours or days.15 Accordingly, the Pacific Fleet based at Bangor could strike as many as 450 to 540 targets either within minutes or hours/days.16
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8 The Hiroshima bomb here is estimated at 15 kilotons. It is listed at 12-15 kilotons at https://www.history.com/ topics/world-war-ii/bombing-of-hiroshima-and-nagasaki
9 Ibid, pg. 193. Note—this summary does not address the purpose of the Trident program—whether for what has been called deterrence, warfighting ability, first strike capability, survivable second-strike capability, etc.
10 Ibid, pg. 192.
11 Ibid, pg. 194. The first SSBN, USS George Washington conducted the first SSBN patrol in 1960. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile_submarine
12 Ibid. Between 2002 and 2005, five Trident SSBNs were transferred from Kings Bay, Georgia to the Bangor base.https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2004/sep/16/two-more-subs-moving-to-bangor This was the beginning of a major shift of U.S. naval forces that would later be known as the “Pivot to Asia.” Also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asian_foreign_policy_of_the_Barack_Obama_administration
13 Ibid, pg. 192. This is based on a total of Kings Bay and Bangor-based submarines of 8-10 at sea at a given time and the estimate that 60 percent of SSBN patrols are now in the Pacific.
14 Ibid. “Hard alert” is when SSBNs are in designated patrol areas within range of the targets specified in their assigned target package in accordance with the strategic war plan. US nuclear forces, 2013. See https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0096340213477999
15 Ibid. These SSBNs at sea are in transit to or from their patrol areas.
16 Each warhead has its own independently targetable reentry vehicle. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Trident_(missile)
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The payload of five Trident SSBNs is equal to approximately 76,180 kilotons (or 76 megatons of explosives) which is more than 25 times the total explosive force for all munitions used in the WWII.17
There are approximately 1,920 warheads assigned to the entire SSBN fleet, of which approximately 950 are deployed on submarines.18 Accordingly, approximately 500 warheads are stored on the Bangor base at the Limited Area Protection and Storage Complex (LAPSC).19
One Trident submarine could strike any target within approximately 60 percent of the Earth’s surface.20
Since the 1970s, the Pentagon has continuously worked to develop a more accurate and deadly warhead delivery system for the Trident system. One recent contract is a $2.2 billion award to Draper for guidance systems that is expected to be completed by October 2028.21 Another $1.2 billion contract was awarded in October 2023 to Lockheed Martin for D-5 missile production and deployed systems support services for the U.S. and U.K. navies.22
In 1973, Bob Aldridge quit his job at Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, in protest of the disarming first strike capability of the Trident missile system. The “Doomsday Clock” of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, in 1973, was set at 12 minutes to midnight.23 Today, the clock is at 90 seconds to midnight—now closer than any other time to nuclear apocalypse.24
What does this mean—our close proximity to such unimaginable destruction?
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17 History StackExchange, https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/56193/what-was-the-total-megatonnage-of- all-munitions-expended-in-world-war-2 The total tonnage of munitions used in WWII equal 3,000 kilotons or 3 megatons of explosives.. This figure includes atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
18 U.S. nuclear weapons, 2024 pg. 193.
19 The number of stored nuclear warheads depends upon numerous factors, such as: the number of W88 warheads either in transit or undergoing modifications at the Pantex Plant in Texas; whether warheads have been removed for SSBN servicing (which would depend upon the type of servicing of the submarine); and likely numerous other factors. See https://fas.org/publication/pacific-ssbn-base where in 2016, approximately 1,000 warheads were estimated to be stored at the LAPSC. The majority of these warheads in storage are the 90-kiloton W76-1 warheads.
20 See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_circumference 7,460 miles distance per D5LE X 2 (14,920 mile for opposite directions from the SSBN) divided by 24,901 miles at the equator of the Earth. This would exclude areas within the minimum range of the SLBM—the area within approximately 1,250 miles in all directions of the SSBN.
21 https://www.draper.com/press-release/draper-awarded-contract-support-development-next-generation-trident-ii- weapon-system
22 Contract to be completed by September 30, 2028. Lockheed Secures $1.2B Navy Contract Modification for Trident II Missile Production – GovCon Wire
23 Bob Aldridge, First Strike! The Pentagon’s Strategy for Nuclear War, (Boston: South End Press,1983), pgs. 13-19. 24 https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline
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The fact that Ground Zero members and peace activists across the Earth continue working for nuclear abolition is a sign of hope and must continue.