Text of Tom Rogers address to the September 24th Seattle Rally for Nuclear Abolition
Thank you. It’s an honor to be here.
I had a 32 year career in the navy as a submarine officer. When I commanded a nuclear submarine, I was directly responsible for nuclear weapons. I understand that nuclear weapons are an existential threat to humanity. If I fail to oppose a national security strategy based on the threat of nuclear annihilation, then I am complicit.
So, I’ve been a member of Ground Zero Center for Nonviolent Action for about 20 years. I’m often surprised that local people don’t know about GZ.
So, a short history lesson: the term “ground zero” first appeared in the Webster dictionary in 1946. It was defined as “the aim point of a nuclear weapon detonation”. In 1977 Jim Douglass and a group of young activists, some of whom are here today, purchased land next to the Bangor Weapons Depot, about 20 miles from here. They established Ground Zero Center for Nonviolent Action, a place of peace. Of course, the Weapons Depot was the future site of the Trident Submarine Base and Strategic Weapons Facility Pacific. If we fail to eliminate nuclear weapons, that sacred place will be “ground zero” of the last war on planet Earth.
According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, there are over 12,500 nuclear warheads in the world today. The US and Russia account for over 11,400.
Closer to home, the Bulletin estimates there are about 1300 warheads based right next to Ground Zero. Excluding the US and Russia, that’s more warheads than the rest of the nuclear weapons states combined. Proximity to those weapons motivates me to do this work!
At the height of the Cold War in the late 80’s there were over 70,000 warheads in the world. 80% of those warheads are gone. But since 2010 reductions have been very modest.
Friends, we are here today to call on our government to aggressively reduce our nuclear stockpiles with a goal of complete nuclear weapons elimination. This is a simple process.
I’ll break it down for you. Currently the U.S. has about 2000 intact retired warheads in bunkers awaiting dismantling. It’s time to accelerate efforts to dismantle warheads. Retired warheads are low hanging fruit. They can be dismantled unilaterally, dramatically reducing the U.S. stockpile by nearly 40% with no change in our government’s national security strategy. Russia has a comparable number and could do the same.
Last year we came perilously close to allowing the New START Treaty to expire. That’s the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty – the key word is Reduction. New START is the one treaty that limits the number of deployed warheads that the U.S. and Russia can maintain. “Deployed” means the warheads are mated to ballistic missiles or collocated with bombers ready to launch. New START was scheduled to expire on February 5, 2021, just 2 weeks after the start of the Biden administration. The Trump administration opposed extending the existing treaty and failed to negotiate a new treaty. I commend the Biden administration and the Russian government for managing to extend the treaty, only 2 days before it expired! It’s now in force until 2026.
Why is that important? Without New START there would be no limit on the numbers of deployed warheads. The inspections and notifications conducted by both sides to enforce the treaty would have ceased.
Currently New START limits the number of deployed warheads in ballistic missile submarines, land based missile silos, and strategic bombers to 1550.
But, New START does not limit the number of warheads that are held in reserve. There are reserve warheads stored in bunkers at the Strategic Weapons Facility in Bangor 20 miles from here, and at the Kings Bay, Georgia Facility, at a Minuteman base in Wyoming, and at bomber bases in the Midwest. There are actually more reserve warheads than deployed warheads. Those reserve warheads could be loaded on existing ballistic missiles and bombers. There should be no doubt that the U.S. Strategic Command has a plan to rapidly deploy those warheads if New START fails.
Now is the time to call on our government to renegotiate New START with Russia. We should demand that the new treaty provide for a transition that results in a level playing field with Russia, China and the other six nuclear weapons states as a basis for future negotiations leading to total elimination of nuclear weapons.
First, the treaty must reduce the number of deployed warheads to a minimum deterrent, a level that still provides an adequate deterrent strategy. Several government and nongovernment studies have concluded that numbers of warheads between 300 and 1000 are credible. Other metrics, like warhead yields and numbers of launchers mostly account for the range. But 500 of the types of warheads currently deployed is a good number. As deployed warheads are reduced, the number of launchers must also be reduced. That means many silos, submarines, and bombers must be decommissioned.
Next, the treaty must limit the number of non-deployed or reserve warheads. This part is necessary to provide some flexibility for temporary storage of warheads during maintenance. 150 warheads is a reasonable number.
Next, the treaty must continue enforcement through intrusive on-site inspections, open skies agreements, and notifications of weapons movements and tests.
And finally, the treaty must provide for verification of warhead dismantling and launcher decommissioning.
We recognize that the war in Ukraine complicates bilateral negotiations with Russia, but it is vital that they move forward. We call on the Biden State Department to do this now and not pass this important work to the next administration.
We also call on the Biden administration to enter into similar bilateral negotiations with China to stem its plans for nuclear weapons expansion during a period of U.S. reductions.
Decommissioning and dismantling warheads and launchers under the Next New START would lower U.S. and Russian stockpiles to about 650 warheads each. During this process the total stockpiles of the other 7 nuclear weapons states combined will remain around 1000 warheads.
This is a manageable number to enter the final phase. At this level or close to it, multilateral negotiations among all 9 nuclear weapons states under the terms of Article 6 of the Nonproliferation Treaty can finally reach fruition. With a plan for complete elimination of nuclear weapons under strict and effective international control, all 9 nuclear weapons states and their allies can then enter into the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.
Cooperative verifications work; the U.S. and Russia have conducted hundreds of intrusive inspections and thousands of notifications to verify deployed launchers and warheads under New START and other treaties. Similar inspections under the control of the United Nations can and will ensure compliance.
It’s that simple. Imagine the total elimination of nuclear weapons! Peace is possible.
EDITOR’S NOTES:
Tom Rogers has been a member of Ground Zero Center for Nonviolent Action in Poulsbo since 2004. A retired Navy Captain, he served in various capacities in the US Submarine Force from 1967 to 1998, including command of a nuclear fast attack submarine from 1988 to 1991. Since coming to Ground Zero he has provided a combination of operational experience with nuclear weapons and the willingness to use that expertise as a nuclear weapons abolitionist.
The September 24th rally and march was hosted by CITIZENS FOR THE UNIVERSAL ABOLITION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
The featured image (from left to right) is of Anne Hall, Brenda McMillan, Betsy Lamb, and Tom Rogers after a vigil and nonviolent direct action at the Bangor Trident nuclear submarine base.
